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对影响通货膨胀的因素分析摘要随着国内商品__上涨,CPI数据的攀升,通胀已经影响到人们的生活通过对CPI指数历年的水平和现状的研究,建立影响通货膨胀的经济模型,研究各解释变量对通货膨胀的影响程度,从而为我国避免严重的通货膨胀以确保经济的持续稳定发展提供理论依据 关键词通货膨胀多因素分析模型计量经济检验修正
1、问题的提出通货膨胀是指流通中的货币数量超过经济运行所需的货币数量而引起的货币贬值和__水平全面、持续上涨的经济现象衡量通货膨胀的常用指标有消费者__指数CPI、生产者__指数PPI和GDP折算数其中最为常用的是消费者__指数所以,本文就影响CPI的因素来解释影响通货膨胀的因素影响通货膨胀的因素有很多,但由于许多因素之间相互重叠,同时为了反映影响通货膨胀的主要因素,因此,综合考虑各方面的因素,我考虑以下一些变量
1.固定资产投资总额(GDZCTZZE)我国当前需求的增长主要由__主导的投资拉动的,主要用于基础设施建设我国固定资产膨胀主要又表现为一般__业投资增长过快,这就造成投资结构向__工业和非生产性建设倾斜,造成能源、原材料的供应和交通运输极度紧张,增加物价上涨的压力
2.货币供应量(HBGYL)货币供应量过多,会引起货币贬值,__水平上涨
3.国内生产总值(GDP)GDP增长对增加对货币的需求,也会增加对货币的供给,所以会给通胀埋下一些隐患
4.外汇储备(WHCB)外债负担过重、外贸逆差过大及国际市场__与国内市场__相当悬殊可能引起通货膨胀
二、模型的选择和变量的设定我将CPI作为因变量,即被解释变量;将固定资产投资总额、货币供应量、国内生产总值、外汇储备作为解释变量,对模型进行回归分析
(一)收集的数据如下CPIGDZCTZZE(亿元)HBGYL(亿)GDP(亿)WHCB(亿美元)
103.
1451715293.
418718.
3111103.
45594.
519349.
921826.
2217.
12106.
48080.
125402.
226937.3194___.
713072.
334879.
835260211.
99124.
117042.
9446923.
548108.
5516.
2117.
120019.
2660750.
559810.
5735.
97108.
322974.
0376094.
970142.
51050.
49102.
82531890995.
378060.
81398.
999.
228406.
17104498.
583024.
3145098.
629854.71119__
7.
988479.
21546.
75100.
432917.
73134610.
398000.
51655.
74100.
737213.
49158310.
9108068.
22121.
6599.
243499.
91185007119095.
72864.
07101.
255566.
61221222.
81351744032.
51103.
970477.4254107159___.
76099.
32101.
888773.
6298755.
7184088.
68188.
72101.
5109998.
2345603.
6213131.
710663.
44104.
8137323.
9403442.
2259258.
915282.
49105.
9172828.
4475166.
6302853.
419460.
3105.222484660622533535323992
(二)建立数学模型及模型的检验建立线性模型CPI=β0+β1*GDZCTZZE+β2*HBGYL+β3*GDP+β4*WHCB对模型显著性的假设为H0β1=β2=β3=β4=0H1β1,β2,β3,β4不全为零
1.模型显著性检验用EVIEWS进行回归操作,结果如下DependentVariable:CPIMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/10/10Time:17:10Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C
102.
97154.9501__
20.
801520.0000GDZCTZZE
0.
0010610.
0004622.
2950790.0366HBGYL-
0.
0003180.000117-
2.
7167180.0159GDP
0.
0001640.
0001421.
1528000.2670WHCB-
0.
0040190.002706-
1.
4850750.1582R-squared
0.476580 Meandependentvar
105.1150AdjustedR-squared
0.337001 S.D.dependentvar
6.552723S.E.ofregression
5.335538 Akaikeinfocriterion
6.39__75Sumsquaredresid
427.0195 Schwarzcriterion
6.647908Loglikelihood-
58.9__75 F-statistic
3.414416Durbin-Watsonstat
0.693276 ProbF-statistic
0.035621Esti__tionCom__nd:=====================LSCPICGDZCTZZEHBGYLGDPWHCBEsti__tionEquation:=====================CPI=C1+C2*GDZCTZZE+C3*HBGYL+C4*GDP+C5*WHCBSubstitutedCoefficients:=====================CPI=
102.9714588+
0.001061271087*GDZCTZZE-
0.000317535485*HBGYL+
0.0001639031138*GDP-
0.004019161098*WHCB将上述Eviews输出的回归分析表中的P-Value值与给定的显著性水平α=
0.05进行比较C、固定资产投资总额、货币供应量的P-Value值
0.05说明这三个解释变量对CPI的影响是显著的,而另外两个不显著因此,我对估计量进行修正,结果如下DependentVariable:CPIMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/10/10Time:17:13Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C
103.
61804.
67236322.
176780.0000GDZCTZZE
0.
0017180.
0005792.
9655030.0102HBGYL-
0.
0003960.000119-
3.
3244060.0050GDP
2.64E-
050.
0001560.
1692540.8680WHCB-
0.
0040680.002546-
1.
5977160.1324WHCB^2-
9.63E-
085.61E-08-
1.
7166780.1081R-squared
0.567600 Meandependentvar
105.1150AdjustedR-squared
0.413171 S.D.dependentvar
6.552723S.E.ofregression
5.019699 Akaikeinfocriterion
6.307942Sumsquaredresid
352.7633 Schwarzcriterion
6.606662Loglikelihood-
57.07942 F-statistic
3.675480Durbin-Watsonstat
0.957758 ProbF-statistic
0.024718Esti__tionCom__nd:=====================LSCPICGDZCTZZEHBGYLGDPWHCBWHCB^2Esti__tionEquation:=====================CPI=C1+C2*GDZCTZZE+C3*HBGYL+C4*GDP+C5*WHCB+C6*WHCB^2SubstitutedCoefficients:=====================CPI=
103.6179755+
0.001718217201*GDZCTZZE-
0.0003955515982*HBGYL+
2.63__04124e-005*GDP-
0.004068304053*WHCB-
9.630845615e-008*WHCB^2结果显示对被解释的影响还是不显著,继续修正DependentVariable:CPIMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/10/10Time:17:22Sampleadjusted:19912009Includedobservations:19afteradjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C
101.
56914.
63787021.__
9950.0000GDZCTZZE
0.
0020470.
0004764.301___
0.0009HBGYL-
0.
0003969.76E-05-
4.
0608600.0013GDP
2.94E-
050.
0001180.
2490860.8072WHCB-
0.
0116470.003195-
3.
6455450.0030DWHCB
0.
0122170.
0032793.
7258730.0025R-squared
0.751092 Meandependentvar
105.2211AdjustedR-squared
0.655359 S.D.dependentvar
6.714626S.E.ofregression
3.941__8 Akaikeinfocriterion
5.833291Sumsquaredresid
202.0013 Schwarzcriterion
6.131535Loglikelihood-
49.41626 F-statistic
7.845647Durbin-Watsonstat
1.454710 ProbF-statistic
0.001336Esti__tionCom__nd:=====================LSCPICGDZCTZZEHBGYLGDPWHCBDWHCBEsti__tionEquation:=====================CPI=C1+C2*GDZCTZZE+C3*HBGYL+C4*GDP+C5*WHCB+C6*DWHCBSubstitutedCoefficients:=====================CPI=
101.5691066+
0.002047293013*GDZCTZZE-
0.0003963094008*HBGYL+
2.935355508e-005*GDP-
0.01164733127*WHCB+
0.01221742232*DWHCB该结果显示外汇储备与外汇储备的增量对CPI的影响是显著的,而GDP对CPI的影响是不显著的,因此考虑删除变量GDP,结果如下DependentVariable:CPIMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/10/10Time:17:28Sampleadjusted:19912009Includedobservations:19afteradjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C
102.
37493.
21004931.__
2010.0000GDZCTZZE
0.
0020250.
0004524.
4824640.0005HBGYL-
0.
0003796.45E-05-
5.
8702850.0000WHCB-
0.
0115330.003054-
3.
7762710.0020DWHCB
0.
0124010.
0030864.
0179470.0013R-squared
0.749905 Meandependentvar
105.2211AdjustedR-squared
0.678449 S.D.dependentvar
6.714626S.E.ofregression
3.807562 Akaikeinfocriterion
5.7327__Sumsquaredresid
202.9653 Schwarzcriterion
5.981326Loglikelihood-
49.46150 F-statistic
10.49466Durbin-Watsonstat
1.547921 ProbF-statistic
0.000382Esti__tionCom__nd:=====================LSCPICGDZCTZZEHBGYLWHCBDWHCBEsti__tionEquation:=====================CPI=C1+C2*GDZCTZZE+C3*HBGYL+C4*WHCB+C5*DWHCBSubstitutedCoefficients:=====================CPI=
102.3749108+
0.002025431046*GDZCTZZE-
0.0003785794737*HBGYL-
0.01153305611*WHCB+
0.01240090219*DWHCB上述Eviews输出结果显示这五个解释变量对CPI的影响都很显著,拒绝原假设H0,接受原假设H1而且可决系数R²=
0.749905即表示这五个解释变量对CPI有
74.99%的影响程度,说明该模型拟合的较好
2.异方差性检验
(1)首先进行怀特检验,结果如下WhiteHeteroskedasticityTest:F-statistic
1.582945 Probability
0.243__7Obs*R-squared
10.61650 Probability
0.224390TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESID^2Method:LeastSquaresDate:12/10/10Time:18:26Sample:19912009Includedobservations:19VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-
9.
94840114.15517-
0.
7028110.4982GDZCTZZE
0.
0025210.
0028790.
8759370.4016GDZCTZZE^
22.92E-
092.53E-
080.
1153070.9105HBGYL-
0.
0001320.000580-
0.226__
50.8251HBGYL^2-
1.77E-
092.52E-09-
0.
7046610.4971WHCB-
0.
0155930.018388-
0.
8479710.4163WHCB^
25.97E-
071.00E-
060.
5955990.5647DWHCB
0.
0303650.
0226081.
3430680.20__DWHCB^2-
3.58E-
063.21E-06-
1.
1172150.2900R-squared
0.558763 Meandependentvar
10.68239AdjustedR-squared
0.205773 S.D.dependentvar
13.91078S.E.ofregression
12.39720 Akaikeinfocriterion
8.178333Sumsquaredresid
1536.905 Schwarzcriterion
8.625698Loglikelihood-
68.69416 F-statistic
1.582945Durbin-Watsonstat
2.737104 ProbF-statistic
0.243__7由上表可知P值均大于
0.05可判断此模型随机误差不存在异方差WhiteHeteroskedasticityTest:F-statistic
1.81__73 Probability
0.297634Obs*R-squared
16.42072 Probability
0.288362TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESID^2Method:LeastSquaresDate:12/10/10Time:18:46Sample:19912009Includedobservations:19VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-
42.
7088449.53310-
0.
8622280.4372GDZCTZZE
0.
0444540.
0305921.
4531230.2198GDZCTZZE^2-
2.24E-
062.52E-06-
0.
8877430.4248GDZCTZZE*HBGYL
2.50E-
076.57E-
070.
3804140.7230GDZCTZZE*WHCB
3.__E-
053.32E-
051.
1703410.3068GDZCTZZE*DWHCB-
1.26E-
052.79E-05-
0.
4521700.6746HBGYL-
0.
0105360.005831-
1.
8070790.1450HBGYL^
24.20E-
084.82E-
080.
8712160.4328HBGYL*WHCB-
4.85E-
064.36E-06-
1.
1116280.3286HBGYL*DWHCB-
1.77E-
062.93E-06-
0.
6049520.5779WHCB-
0.
0672720.187855-
0.
3581050.7384WHCB^2-
0.
0001220.000105-
1.
1614720.3100WHCB*DWHCB
4.87E-
050.
0001610.
3020220.7777DWHCB
0.2954__
0.
2817601.
0487250.3535DWHCB^
20.
0001938.76E-
052.
2010790.0925R-squared
0.864249 Meandependentvar
10.68239AdjustedR-squared
0.3__119 S.D.dependentvar
13.91078S.E.ofregression
10.87251 Akaikeinfocriterion
7.631155Sumsquaredresid
472.8458 Schwarzcriterion
8.376764Loglikelihood-
57.49597 F-statistic
1.81__73Durbin-Watsonstat
3.233300 ProbF-statistic
0.297634由上表仍可判断该模型不存在异方差
(2)ARCH检验ARCHTest:F-statistic
0.090188 Probability
0.767805Obs*R-squared
0.100__3 Probability
0.750761TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESID^2Method:LeastSquaresDate:12/10/10Time:18:36Sampleadjusted:19922009Includedobservations:18afteradjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C
10.
285664.
3735492.
3517880.0318RESID^2-
10.
0744170.
2477970.
3003130.7678R-squared
0.005605 Meandependentvar
11.09732AdjustedR-squared-
0.056545 S.D.dependentvar
14.19257S.E.ofregression
14.58830 Akaikeinfocriterion
8.302757Sumsquaredresid
3405.098 Schwarzcriterion
8.401687Loglikelihood-
72.72481 F-statistic
0.090188Durbin-Watsonstat
1.984290 ProbF-statistic
0.767805由上表仍可得出,该模型不存在异方差
(3)残差正态性检验由上图可以知道正态可能性为
72.49%,正态可能性很大,模型较好
3.残差的自相关性检验
(1)如图可知残差不存在自相关
(2)拉格朗日乘数检验Breusch-GodfreySerialCorrelationLMTest:F-statistic
0.618834 Probability
0.554905Obs*R-squared
1.776422 Probability
0.411391TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESIDMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/11/10Time:12:56Presamplemissingvaluelaggedresidualssettozero.VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C
2.451__
44.
0397670.
6069400.5552GDZCTZZE-
0.
0003730.000595-
0.
6274130.5421HBGYL
4.46E-
058.13E-
050.
5492780.5929WHCB
0.
0023560.
0040120.
5870630.5680DWHCB-
0.
0010170.004005-
0.
2538450.8039RESID-
10.
4244250.___
6711.
0976380.2939RESID-2-
0.
2221780.411055-
0.
5405070.5987R-squared
0.093496 Meandependentvar
1.86E-14AdjustedR-squared-
0.359756 S.D.dependentvar
3.357954S.E.ofregression
3.915662 Akaikeinfocriterion
5.845156Sumsquaredresid
183.98__ Schwarzcriterion
6.193107Loglikelihood-
48.52__8 F-statistic
0.206278Durbin-Watsonstat
1.995118 ProbF-statistic
0.968058因为对自相关性检验的假设条件是Ho残差无自相关性H1残差具有相关性所以由表可知残差不具有相关性
3.参数的稳定性检验由图可以看出来参数比较稳定
三、模型的分析经过一系列的检验与修正后,得到模型的最终结果如下CPI=
102.3749108+
0.002025431046*GDZCTZZE-
0.0003785794737*HBGYL-
0.01153305611*WHCB+
0.01240090219*DWHCBR²=
0.749905F-statistic=
10.49466D.W=
1.
5479211.由于GDP对CPI的影响不显著,因此将该变量剔除这说明,在规范的经济学中,GDP与通货膨胀间没有直接的关系
2.。