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ImgoingtotalktoyouaboutsomestuffthatsinthisbookofminethatIhopewillresonatewithotherthingsyouvealreadyheardandIlltryto__kesomeconnectionsmyselfincaseyoumissthem.IwanttostartwithwhatIcalltheofficialdog__.Theofficialdog__ofwhatTheofficialdog__ofallwesternindustrialsocieties.Andtheofficialdog__runslikethis:ifweareinterestedin__ximizingthewelfareofourcitizensthewaytodothatisto__ximizeindividual_______.Thereasonforthisisboththat_______isinandofitselfgoodvaluableworthwhileessentialtobeinghu__n.Andbecauseifpeopleh__e_______theneachofuscanactonourowntodothethingsthatwill__ximizeourwelfareandnoonehastodecideonourbehalf.Thewayto__ximize_______isto__ximizechoi__.Themorechoi__peopleh__ethemore_______theyh__eandthemore_______theyh__ethemorewelfaretheyh__e.ThisIthinkissodeeplyembeddedinthewatersupplythatitwouldntoccurtoanyonetoquestionit.Anditsalsodeeplyembeddedinourlives.Illgiveyousomeexamplesofwhatmodernprogresshas__depossibleforus.Thisismysuper__rket.Notsuchabigone.Iwanttosayjustawordaboutsaladdressing.175saladdressingsinmysuper__rketifyoudontcountthe10differentextra-virginoliveoilsand12balsamicvinegarsyoucouldbuyto__keaverylargenumberofyourownsaladdressingsintheoffchan__thatnoneofthe175thestorehasonoffersuityou.Sothisiswhatthesuper__rketislike.Andthenyougototheconsumerelectronicsstoretosetupastereosystem--speakersCDplayertapeplayertuneramplifier.Andinthisonesingleconsumerelectronicsstoretherearethat__nystereosystems.Wecanconstructsixandahalfmilliondifferentstereosystemsoutofthecomponentsthatareonofferinonestore.Youvegottoadmitthatsalotofchoi__.Inotherdo__ins--theworldofcommunications.TherewasatimewhenIwasaboywhenyoucouldgetanykindoftelephoneservi__youwantedaslongasitcamefrom__Bell.Yourentedyourphone.Youdidntbuyit.Oneconsequen__ofthatbythewayisthatthephoneneverbroke.Andthosedaysaregone.Wenowh__eanalmostunlimitedvarietyofphonesespeciallyintheworldof__llphones.Theseare__llphonesofthefuture.Myf__oriteisthemiddleone--theMP3playernosehairtrimmerandcremebruleetorch.Andifbysomechan__youh__entseenthatinyourstoreyetyoucanrestassuredthatonedaysoonyouwill.Andwhatthisdoesisitleadspeopletowalkintotheirstoresaskingthisquestion.AnddoyouknowwhattheanswertothisquestionnowisTheanswerisNo.Itisnotpossibletobuya__llphonethatdoesntdotoomuch.SoinotheraspectsoflifethataremuchmoresignificantthanbuyingthingsThesameexplosionofchoi__istrue.Healthcare--itisnolongerthecaseintheUnitedStatesthatyougotothedoctorandthedoctor____syouwhattodo.Insteadyougotothedoctorandthedoctor____syouwellwecoulddoAorwecoulddoB.Ahasthesebenefitsandtheserisks.Bhasthesebenefitsandtheserisks.WhatdoyouwanttodoAndyousayDocwhatshouldIdoAndthedocsaysAhasthesebenefitsandrisksandBhasthesebenefitsandrisks.WhatdoyouwanttodoAndyousayIfyouweremeDocwhatwouldyoudoAndthedocsaysButImnotyou.Andtheresultis--wecallitpatientautonomywhich__kesitsoundlikeagoodthing.Butwhatitreallyisisashiftingoftheburdenandtheresponsibilityfordecision-__kingfromsomebodywhoknowssomething--namelythedoctor--tosomebodywhoknowsnothingandisalmost__rtainlysickandthusnotinthebestshapetobe__kingdecisions--namelythepatient.Theresenormous__rketingofprescriptiondrugstopeoplelikeyouandmewhichifyouthinkaboutit__kesnosenseatallsin__wecantbuythem.Whydothey__rkettousifwecantbuythemTheansweristhattheyexpectustocallourdoctorsthenextmorningandaskprescriptionstobechanged.Somethingasdra__ticasouridentityhasnowbecomea__tterofchoi__asthisslideismeanttoindicate.Wedontinheritanidentitywegettoinventit.Andwegettore-inventourselvesasoftenaswelike.Andthatmeansthateverydaywhenyouwakeupinthemorningyouh__etodecidewhatkindofpersonyouwanttobe.Withrespectto__rriageandfamilytherewasatimewhenthedefaultassumptionthatalmosteveryonehadisthatyougot__rriedassoonasyoucouldandthenyoustartedh__ingkidsassoonasyoucould.Theonlyrealchoi__waswhonotwhenandnotwhatyoudidafter.Nowadayseverythingisverymuchupforgrabs.Iteachwonderfullyin____igentstudentsandIassign20per__ntlessworkthanIusedto.Anditsnotbecausetheyreless__artanditsnotbecausetheyrelessdiligent.ItsbecausetheyarepreoccupiedaskingthemselvesShouldIget__rriedornotShouldIget__rriednowShouldIget__rriedlaterShouldIh__ekidsfirstoracareerfirstAlloftheseareconsumingquestions.AndtheyregoingtoanswerthesequestionswhetherornotitmeansnotdoingalltheworkIassignandnotgettingagoodgradeinmycourses.Andindeedtheyshould.Theseareimportantquestionstoanswer.Work--weareblessedasCarlwaspointingoutwiththetechnologythatenablesustoworkeveryminuteofeverydayfromanypla__ontheplanet--ex__pttheRandolphHotel.LaughterThereisonecornerbythewaythatImnotgoingto____anybodyaboutwheretheWiFiworks.Imnot____ingyouaboutitbecauseIwanttouseit.Sowhatthismeansthisincredible_______ofchoi__weh__ewithrespecttoworkisthatweh__eto__keadecisionagainandagainandagainaboutwhetherweshouldorshouldntbeworking.Wecangotowatchourkidplaysoc__randweh__eour__llphoneononehipandourBlackberryonourotherhipandourlaptoppresu__blyonourlaps.Andeveniftheyreallshutoffeveryminutethatwerewatchingourkidmutilateasoc__rgamewearealsoaskingourselvesShouldIanswerthis__llphonecallShouldIrespondtothise__ilShouldIdraftthisletterAndeveniftheanswertothequestionisnoits__rtainlygoingto__ketheexperien__ofyourkidssoc__rgameverydifferentthanitwouldvebeen.Soeverywherewelookbigthingsand__allthings__terialthingsandlifestylethingslifeisa__tterofchoi__.Andtheworldweusedtoliveinlookedlikethis.Thatistosaythereweresomechoi__sbutnoteverythingwasa__tterofchoi__.Andtheworldwenowliveinlookslikethis.AndthequestionisisthisgoodnewsorbadnewsAndtheanswerisyes.LaughterWeallknowwhatsgoodaboutitsoImgoingtotalkaboutwhatsbadaboutit.Allofthischoi__hastwoeffectstwonegativeeffectsonpeople.Oneeffectparadoxicallyisthatitprodu__sparalysisratherthanliberation.Withso__nyoptionstochoosefrompeoplefinditverydifficulttochooseatall.Illgiveyouoneverydra__ticexampleofthisastudythatwasdoneofinvestmentsinvoluntaryretirementplans.Acolleagueofminegotac__sstoinvestmentrecordsfromVanguardthegiganticmutualfundcompanyofaboutamillionemployeesandabout2000differentworkpla__s.Andwhatshefoundisthatforevery10mutualfundstheemployerofferedrateofparticipationwentdowntwoper__nt.Youoffer50funds--10per__ntfeweremployeesparticipatethanifyouonlyofferfive.WhyBecausewith50fundstochoosefromitssodamnhardtodecidewhichfundtochoosethatyoulljustputitoffuntiltomorrow.Andthentomorrowandthentomorrowandtomorrowandtomorrowandofcoursetomorrownevercomes.Understandthatnotonlydoesthismeanthatpeoplearegoingtoh__etoeatdogfoodwhentheyretirebecausetheydonth__eenoughmoneytoputawayitalsomeansthat__kingthedecisionissohardthattheypassupsignificant__tchingmoneyfromtheemployer.Bynotparticipatingtheyarepassingupasmuchas5000dollarsayearfromtheemployerwhowouldhappily__tchtheircontribution.Soparalysisisaconsequen__ofh__ingtoo__nychoi__s.AndIthinkit__kestheworldlooklikethis.LaughterYoureallywanttogetthedecisionrightifitsforalleternityrightYoudontwanttopickthewrongmutualfundoreventhewrongsaladdressing.Sothatsoneeffect.Thesecondeffectisthatevenifwe__nagetoovercometheparalysisand__keachoi__weenduplesssatisfiedwiththeresultofthechoi__thanwewouldbeifwehadfeweroptionstochoosefrom.Andthereareseveralreasonsforthis.Oneofthemisthatwithalotofdifferentsaladdressingstochoosefromifyoubuyoneanditsnotperfect--andyouknowwhatsaladdressingisItseasytoi__ginethatyoucouldh__e__deadifferentchoi__thatwouldh__ebeenbetter.Andwhathappensisthisi__ginedalternativeindu__syoutoregretthedecisionyou__deandthisregretsubtractsfromthesatisfactionyougetoutofthedecisionyou__deevenifitwasagooddecision.Themoreoptionstherearetheeasieritistoregretanythingatallthatisdisappointingabouttheoptionthatyouchose.Secondwhateconomistscallopportunitycosts.DanGilbert__deabigpointthismorningoftalkingabouthowmuchthewayinwhichwevaluethingsdependsonwhatwecomparethemto.Wellwhentherearelotsofalternativestoconsideritiseasytoi__ginetheattractivefeaturesofalternativesthatyourejectthat__keyoulesssatisfiedwiththealternativethatyouvechosen.Heresanexample.ForthoseofyouwhoarentNewYorkersIapologize.LaughterButhereswhatyouresupposedtobethinking.HeresthiscoupleontheHamptons.Veryexpensiverealestate.Gorgeousbeach.Beautifulday.Theyh__eitalltothemselves.WhatcouldbebetterWelldamnitthisguyisthinkingItsAugust.Everybodyinmy__nhattannei___orhoodisaway.Icouldbeparkingrightinfrontofmybuilding.Andhespendstwoweeksnaggedbytheideathatheismissingtheopportunitydayafterdaytoh__eagreatparkingspa__.Opportunitycostssubtractfromthesatisfactionwegetoutofwhatwechooseevenwhenwhatwechooseisterrific.Andthemoreoptionstherearetoconsiderthemoreattractivefeaturesoftheseoptionsaregoingtobereflectedbyusasopportunitycosts.Heresanotherexample.Nowthiscartoon__kesalotofpoints.It__kespointsaboutlivinginthemomentaswellandprobablyaboutdoingthingsslowly.Butonepointit__kesisthatwheneveryourechoosingonethingyourechoosingnottodootherthings.Andthoseotherthings__yh__elotsofattractivefeaturesanditsgoingto__kewhatyouredoinglessattractive.Third:escalationofexpectations.ThishitmewhenIwenttorepla__myjeans.Iwearjeansalmostallthetime.Andtherewasatimewhenjeanscameinonefl__orandyouboughtthemandtheyfitlikecrapandtheywereincrediblyuncomfortableandifyouworethemlongenoughandwashedthemenoughtimestheystartedtofeelOK.SoIwenttorepla__myjeansafteryearsandyearsofwearingtheseoldonesandIsaidYouknowIwantapairofjeansheresmysize.AndtheshopkeepersaidDoyouwantslimfiteasyfitrelaxedfitYouwantbuttonflyorzipperflyYouwantstonewashedoracidwashedDoyouwantthemdistressedYouwantbootcutyouwanttaperedblahblahblah...Onandonhewent.MyjawdroppedandafterIrecoveredIsaidIwantthekindthatusedtobetheonlykind.LaughterHehadnoideawhatthatwassoIspentanhourtryingonallthesedamnjeansandIwalkedoutofthestore--truthbetold--withthebestfittingjeansIhadeverhad.Ididbetter.Allthischoi____deitpossibleformetodobetter.ButIfeltworse.WhyIwroteawholebooktotryandexplainthistomyself.ThereasonIfeltworseisthatwithalloftheseoptions__ailablemyexpectationsabouthowgoodapairofjeansshouldbewentup.Ihadverylowexpectations.Ihadnoparticularexpectationswhentheyonlycameinonefl__or.Whentheycamein100fl__orsdamnitoneofthemshouldvebeenperfect.AndwhatIgotwasgoodbutitwasntperfect.AndsoIcomparedwhatIgottowhatIexpectedandwhatIgotwasdisappointingincomparisontowhatIexpected.Addingoptionstopeopleslivescanthelpbutincreasetheexpectationspeopleh__eabouthowgoodthoseoptionswillbe.Andwhatthatsgoingtoprodu__islesssatisfactionwithresultsevenwhentheyregoodresults.Nobodyintheworldof__rketingknowsthis.Becauseiftheydidyouwouldntallknowwhatthiswasabout.Thetruthismorelikethis.LaughterThereasonthateverythingwasbetterbackwheneverythingwasworseisthatwheneverythingwasworseitwasactuallypossibleforpeopletoh__eexperien__sthatwereapleasantsurprise.Nowadaystheworldwelivein--weaffluentindustrializedcitizenswithperfectiontheexpectation--thebestyoucaneverhopeforisthatstuffisasgoodasyouexpectittobe.Youwillneverbepleasantlysurprisedbecauseyourexpectationsmyexpectationsh__egonethroughtheroof.Thesecrettohappiness--thisiswhatyouallcamefor--thesecrettohappinessislowexpectations.LaughterApplauseIwanttosay--justalittleautobiographicalmoment--thatIactuallyam__rriedtoawifeandshesreallyquitewonderful.Icouldnth__edonebetter.Ididntsettle.Butsettlingisntalwayssuchabadthing.Finallyoneconsequen__ofbuyingabad-fittingpairofjeanswhenthereisonlyonekindtobuyisthatwhenyouaredissatisfiedandyouaskwhywhosresponsibletheanswerisclear.Theworldisresponsible.WhatcouldyoudoWhentherearehundredsofdifferentstylesofjeans__ailableandyoubuyonethatisdisappointingandyouaskwhywhosresponsibleItisequallyclearthattheanswertothequestionisyou.Youcouldh__edonebetter.Withahundreddifferentkindsofjeansondisplaythereisnoexcuseforfailure.Andsowhenpeople__kedecisionsandeventhoughtheresultsofthedecisionsaregoodtheyfeeldisappointedaboutthemtheyblamethemselves.Clinicaldepressionhasexplodedintheindustrialworldinthelastgeneration.Ibelieveasignificant--nottheonlybutasignificantcontributortothisexplosionofdepressionandalso_______isthatpeopleh__eexperien__sthataredisappointingbecausetheirstandardsaresohigh.Andthenwhentheyh__etoexplaintheseexperien__stothemselvestheythinktheyreatfault.Andsothenetresultisthatwedobetteringeneralo__ectivelyandwefeelworse.Soletmeremindyou.Thisistheofficialdog__theonethatwealltaketobetrueanditsallfalse.Itisnottrue.Theresnoquestionthatsomechoi__isbetterthannonebutitdoesntfollowfromthatthatmorechoi__isbetterthansomechoi__.Theressome__gicalamount.Idontknowwhatitis.Imprettyconfidentthatweh__elongsin__passedthepointwhereoptionsimproveourwelfare.Nowasapolicy__tter--Imalmostdone--asapolicy__tterthethingtothinkaboutisthis.Whatenablesallofthischoi__inindustrialsocietiesis__terialaffluen__.Therearelotsofpla__sintheworldandweh__eheardaboutseveralofthemwheretheirproblemisnotthattheyh__etoomuchchoi__.Theirproblemisthattheyh__etoolittle.SothestuffImtalkingaboutisthepeculiarproblemofmodernaffluentWesternsocieties.Andwhatissofrustratingandinfuriatingisthis:SteveLevitttalkedtoyouyesterdayabouthowtheseexpensiveanddifficulttoinstallchildseatsdonthelp.Itsawasteofmoney.WhatIm____ingyouisthattheseexpensivecomplicatedchoi__s--itsnotsimplythattheydonthelp.Theyactuallyhurt.Theyactually__keusworseoff.Ifsomeofwhatenablespeopleinoursocietiesto__keallofthechoi__swe__kewereshiftedtosocietiesinwhichpeopleh__etoofewoptionsnotonlywouldthosepeopleslivesbeimprovedbutourswouldbeimprovedalso.ThisiswhateconomistscallaPareto-improvingmove.Incomeredistributionwill__keeveryonebetteroff--notjustpoorpeople--becauseofhowallthisex__sschoi__plaguesus.Sotoconclude.YouresupposedtoreadthiscartoonandbeingasophisticatedpersonsayAh!WhatdoesthisfishknowYouknownothingispossibleinthisfishbowl.Impoverishedi__ginationamyopicviewoftheworld--andthatsthewayIreaditatfirst.ThemoreIthoughtaboutithoweverthemoreIcametotheviewthatthisfishknowssomething.Becausethetruthofthe__tteristhatifyoushatterthefishbowlsothateverythingispossibleyoudonth__e_______.Youh__eparalysis.Ifyoushatterthisfishbowlsothateverythingispossibleyoudecreasesatisfaction.Youincreaseparalysisandyoudecreasesatisfaction.Everybodyneedsafishbowl.Thisoneisalmost__rtainlytoolimited--perhapsevenforthefish__rtainlyforus.Buttheabsen__ofsomemetaphoricalfishbowlisarecipeformiseryandIsuspectdisaster.Thankyouverymuch.Applause。