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莆蒇袆肃肆蚂螁肂膈蒅蚇肁莀蚁蚃肀蒃薃羂肀膂莆袈聿芄薂螄肈莇莅蚀膇肆薀薆膆腿莃袅膅芁薈螁膄蒃莁螇膄膃蚇蚃膃芅葿羁膂莈蚅袇膁蒀蒈螃芀膀蚃虿袇节蒆薅袆莄蚁袄袅膄蒄袀袄芆螀螆袃莈薃蚂袂蒁莅羀袂膀薁袆袁芃莄螂羀莅蕿蚈罿肅莂薄羈芇薇羃羇荿蒀衿羆蒂蚆螅羆膁葿蚁羅芄蚄薇羄莆蒇袆肃肆蚂螁肂膈蒅蚇肁莀蚁蚃肀蒃薃羂肀膂莆袈聿芄薂螄肈莇莅蚀膇肆薀薆膆腿莃袅膅芁薈螁膄蒃莁螇膄膃蚇蚃膃芅葿羁膂莈蚅袇膁蒀蒈螃芀膀蚃虿袇节蒆薅袆莄蚁袄袅膄蒄袀袄芆螀螆袃莈薃蚂袂蒁莅羀袂膀薁袆袁芃莄螂羀莅蕿蚈罿肅莂薄羈芇薇羃羇荿蒀衿羆蒂蚆螅羆膁葿蚁羅芄蚄薇羄莆蒇袆肃肆蚂螁肂膈蒅蚇肁莀蚁蚃肀蒃薃羂肀膂莆袈聿芄薂螄肈莇莅蚀膇肆薀薆膆腿莃袅膅芁薈螁膄蒃莁螇膄膃蚇蚃膃芅葿羁膂莈蚅袇膁蒀蒈螃芀膀蚃虿袇节蒆薅袆莄蚁袄袅膄蒄袀袄芆螀螆袃莈薃蚂袂蒁莅羀袂膀薁袆袁芃莄螂羀莅蕿蚈罿肅莂薄羈芇薇羃羇荿蒀衿羆蒂蚆螅羆膁葿蚁羅芄蚄薇羄莆蒇袆肃肆蚂螁肂膈蒅蚇肁莀蚁蚃肀蒃薃羂肀膂莆袈聿芄薂螄肈莇莅蚀膇肆薀薆TheImpactofRMB’sAppreciationonChina’sTradeGuihuanZheng12LiGuo2___meiJiang2XunZhang12andShouyangWang121InstituteofSystemsScien__Academyof__the__ticsandSystemsScien__ChineseAcademyofScien__sBei___g100080China2Schoolof__nagementGraduateUniversityofChineseAcademyofScien__sBei___g100080ChinaAbstract:Withtheannoun__mentofreformingtheRMBexchangerateregimeonJuly212005greatattentionhasbeenpaidtotheimpactsofRMB’sappreciationonChina’strade.Sin__Chinabeinginthetransitionfrompeggingtoa__nagedfloatingregimenoexistingapproxi__temodelandmethodcanbeutilizedtoinvestigatethisquestiondirectly.Inthispapers__nario____ysistechniqueisusedtogiveastudyonthisissuecoupledwiththeintroductionofthesubstitutedvaluables:JapaneseyenandEuroexchangerate.OurresultsshowthatRMB’sappreciationwouldnotbringsevereeffectsonChina’stradein2005;howeverthepossiblesustainedreductionofexportgrowthin2006shouldbepaidmoreattention.Itisalsone__ssaryandurgenttopressforwardwiththereformofRMBexchangerateregimeandputuptherelatedsupportingpoliciesto__oidsuchsuddenfluctuationastheJapanesesituationafter“PlazaAccord”.JELClassification:C53F17F31Keywords:RMB’sappreciationChina’stradeS__nario____ysis
1.IntroductionTheRMBexchangeratebecameahottopicaftertheannoun__mentofexchangerateregimereformonJuly
212005.Thenewregimea__nagedfloatingexchangerateregimebasedon__rketsupplyandde__ndwithreferen__toabasketofcurrenciesallowsRMBtoriseby2%withadaily
0.3%tradingbandbasedonthepri__ofthepreviousday.WithitsrapiddevelopmentChina’seconomyhasbecomeanincreasinglyimportantelementintheglobaleconomicdevelopmentandintegration.AgainstthisbackdroptheimpactsofRMB’sappreciationonChina’stradeattractgreatattention.BeforethisreformofRMBtherehasemergedavasttheoreticalliteraturecon__ntratedontheimpactsofRMB’srevaluationLiu2004;Zhang
2001.Howeverrelativelylittleresearchhasbeenundertakenontheempirical____ysisofthisissue.Cyn-YoungPark2005aneconomistinAsianDevelopmentBank____yzed__croeconomicimpactsofa“one-off”appreciationoftheRMBagainstthedollarusingtheOxfordEconomicForecastingOEFmodel.Thiswork__yshedlightonthedynamicsbetweenglobalimbalan__sandrevaluation.TheOEFmodelframeworkBurridgeetal.1991allowssimulation____ysesbasedontheglobaleconometricstructurewhichwillprovidesomequantitativeresultsfortheimpactsofarevaluationonthecon__rnedeconomiessuchasthePRCJapanUSandotherAsiancountries.Thestabilityofequilibriumstate__ybeda__gedwhentheregimeshiftswhichhowevercannotbestu___dinthismodel.Zhang2005aresearcherinChineseAcademyofSocialScien__spresentedastudyonthisissuebytheelasticity____ysis.BothoftheseresultssuggestedthattheimpactsofarevaluationonChina’seconomymightchangeintheproportionofanappreciation’sscale.Infactintheshorttermthereasonablenessofthisproportionateresultshouldbedoubted.The__inbodyofexistingliteraturehoweverhassofarmostly__nteredonquantitativediscussiondescribingtherelationbetweentradeandexchangerateArize1996;Baileyetal.1987;Chengetal.2003;Chou2000;Cush__n1983;Gotur1985;KorayandLastrapes19__;Mckenzie1999;SauerandBohara2001;Swift2004;ViaeneanddeVries1992;WangandDunne
2003.TherehasbeensurprisinglylittleempiricalworkthatfocusontheexchangerateregimeshiftZheng2005especiallyfrompeggingtotheUSdollartoa__nagedfloatingregime.Noexistingappropriatemodelormethodcanbefoundtosupportthiskindofresearchdirectly.Thereforesomeindirectmethodsshouldbeexperimentedforstudyingthisissuewiththesubstitutevariablesintrodu__d.Inthispapers__nario____ysistechniqueisusedtogiveasensitivity____ysisofChina’stradetotheappreciationofRMB.Thefirsttypeofs__nariosisahypothetics__nariobeingrelatedwiththecurrentappreciationofRMBby2%;whilethesecondonethatbelongstothehistoricals__narioisbasedonthehistoricalevent----theJapaneseyen’svariabilityaftersubscribing“PlazaAccord”.There__iningpartofthispaperisorganizedasfollows.Thetheoryandmethodofs__nario____ysesareintrodu__dinSection
2.ModelsandtheirevaluationareoutlinedinSection
3.Forecastingresultsfroms__narios____ysesarepresentedinSection
4.Section5concludesthepaper.
2.S__nario____ysisS__nario____ysisCommitteeontheGlobalFinancialSystem2000isakindofstresstestingwhichservestoesti__tepotentialextremelossesofaportfoliovalueandgivehelpfulsuggestionstothedecision__kersinrisk__nagementofacompanyorafinancialinstitution.Generallys__narioisameanstoexplorethefutureeconomicsituationandidentifywhatmighthappenandhowanorganizationcanactorreactuponfuturedevelopments.
2.1MethodInourworks__nario____ysisservestoesti__tethechangesintradeifthes__nariosweretooccur.Theessen__ofthismethodologyisthecreationofuser-defineds__nariosfedintoacalculationenginetoprodu__esti__tesoftheimpacts.Moreoversuch____ysisshouldbebasedontheevaluatedmodel.Generallythes__nariosinstresstestingusuallyfallintothree__intypes:1Thetypicals__narioistousepredefinedorset-pie__s__nariosthath__eproventobeusefulinpracti__suchasonex%changeofexchangerate__yresultay%fallinthestockindex.2Thehypothetics__narioistoreporttheworst-caseresultsthroughsomesu__ectiveassumptionbasedononespecialevent.3Thehistoricals__narioistostimulatethehistoricaltrackforesti__tingtheimpactsbasedononeactualevent.Aftersettingthes__nariosandestablishingthevaluationfunctionsthevaluesoftradewouldbeesti__tedthroughrunningthemodelforeachs__nario.
2.2Sets__nariosInourpapertwotypesofs__nariosthesecondoneandthethirdoneareintrodu__d.TheyarebasedontheassumptionthatRMBwouldappreciateagainstthedollarandothereconomiescould__intainthecurrentexchangerateregimes.1Thehypothetics__narioAsweallknowRMBhasappreciated2%withadaily
0.3%tradingbandbasedonthepri__ofthepreviousday.Toillustratetheeffectscausedbythisregimeshiftonehypothetics__narionameds__narioⅠisintrodu__d.Inthiss__narioitisassumedthattheRMB/USDexchangeratewouldappreciatetoathresholdvalueby2%inAugust2005and__intainsuchvalueuntiltheendofthenextyear.Sin__theeffectoftherelatedfactors’changeson__croeconomicstructureislessthanthatonportfoliositisreasonabletoassumethatthedomesticandinternational__rketskeepstableandshouldnotsufferasuddenchangeintheshortrun.Thiss__nario____ysisaboutone-offappreciationwillbediscussedinsuchassumed__croeconomicbackground.2Thehistoricals__narioSeenfromtheprevioushistory__nycasesareworthbeingusedasreferen__forthesimilarsituationsuchasJapanGer__nyandIndonesia.EspeciallythecaseofJapanaftersubscribing“PlazaAccord”issuitableforprovidingagoods__nario.OnSeptember22nd1985finan__ministersfromtheworldsfivebiggesteconomies-theUnitedStatesJapanWestGer__nyFran__andtheUK-announ__dthePlazaAccordattheeponymousNewYorkhotel.Eachcountry__despecificpromisesoneconomicpolicy:theUnitedStatespledgedtocutthefederaldeficitJapanpromisedaloosermonetarypolicyandarangeoffinancial-sectorreformsandGer__nyproposedtaxcuts.Allcountriesagreedtointerveneincurrency__rketsasne__ssarytogetthedollardown.Bytheendof1987thedollarhadfallenby54%againstboththeD-__rkandtheyenfromitspeakinFebruary
1985.Japaneseyenexperien__dasevereappreciationpro__ssfromthelevelof
45.53exchangerateindexinSeptember1985tothelevelof
53.13inDe__mber1985increasingby20%SeeFig.1DataaretakenfromInternationalFinancialStatisticsinIMF.AfterthenthetrendofJapaneseyen’sappreciationlastedabouttenyears.图表
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4787.16Sheet1CDROMSCALE_FACTOR00UNITSIndexNumberNationalCurrencyNationalCurrencySCALENoneBillionsBillionsCOUNTRYNAMEJapanJapanJapanDATABASEIFSIFSIFSSERIES_CODE
158..AHXZF...
15870...ZF...
15871...ZF...DESCRIPTOREXCHANGERATEINDEX2000=100EXPORTSIMPORTSCIF汇率波动1970M
130.
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546.72325628311984M
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744.37353627761984M
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184.69243720241989M
284.34287619471989M
382.67339225451989M
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577.92290824011989M
674.95324724921989M
776.57332024731989M
876.38306125901989M
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174.26269926491990M
274.04319024691990M
370.41387628231990M
467.99344428881990M
570.2338028991990M
670.06362426041990M
772.19362628231990M
873.1334028301990M
977.54368627111990M
1083.11357331431990M
1183.48330230151990M
1280.69371730001991M
180.49295128271991M
282.58327026081991M
378.54396128211991M
478.6331624501991M
578.05337027951991M
677.08353925301991M
778.07369327781991M
878.7339826171991M
980.06376224511991M
1082.42374928001991M
1183.08353326981991M
1284.1381725251992M
186.15302125461992M
284.51352922481992M
381.2396925331992M
480.69362726801992M
582.53336923481992M
684.96360024561992M
785.75370625481992M
885.31331824291992M
987.81393024311992M
1089.01376024481992M
1186.98335224191992M
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186.19301223571993M
289.12346121571993M
392.03408625101993M
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597.59298721241993M
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196.63290722241994M
2101.48322020341994M
3102.48384023721994M
4104.07343522741994M
5103.86289622201994M
6104.
9235102327.61994M
7109.39343222101994M
8107.91311725101994M
9109.04358824001994M
10109.49342825111994M
11109.99335325191994M
12107.61374424491995M
1108.02272524441995M
2109.68349423731995M
3118.76401127161995M
4128.
823463.625391995M
5126.66298123911995M
6127.46341424221995M
7123.55325824471995M
8114.09319526591995M
9107.26381826981995M
10107.04356130191995M
11105.72360529311995M
12105.82400628951996M
1101.81302729641996M
2101.91362529801996M
3101.82411029931996M
4100.26364533291996M
5101.23340631771996M
698.97366329311996M
798.56382633261996M
899.99345431071996M
998.17387430971996M
1095.89396235001996M
1195.98396832981996M
1294.71416932901997M
191.
323541.
33565.81997M
287.
63990.
43309.71997M
387.
864540.337401997M
485.
8544273619.81997M
590.
664102.
73370.71997M
694.
354119.
63160.21997M
793.
584281.
23442.11997M
891.
393936.
13217.11997M
989.
234423.533601997M
108946463540.11997M
1186.
024224.
83162.31997M
1283.
284705.
23468.51998M
183.27386034531998M
285.52409428171998M
383.74459133511998M
481.84434731241998M
579.83404228241998M
676.67434631331998M
776.56456132511998M
874.48401431231998M
980.07459730551998M
1089.12438130151998M
1189.38367927891998M
1291.63413227181999M
195.21345126971999M
292.42359326621999M
389.97430630021999M
489.94402429871999M
588.24356127411999M
689.12408729251999M
789.93422029771999M
895.03373730401999M
9100.2427028961999M
1096.97413329641999M
11102.68389032261999M
12104.94427731532000M
1102.46351329922000M
298.58413729572000M
3100.95470035952000M
4102.14437832372000M
599.66385232762000M
6101.38448732952000M
799.87431333132000M
899.66420535992000M
9100.95467933862000M
1099.44447637872000M
1198.9428336872000M129646263810Sheet2Sheet3Figure1:JapaneseExchangeRateIndexafterPlazeAccordAfterinvestigatingthedataaboutexportimportandexchangerateinJapanovertheperiodof1982-1990wefindthatJapaneseyen’sappreciationhasn’tcausedthechangesofthelongequilibriumrelationbetweenexportandexchangerate.Thereforeitisfeasibletosets__narioswithanassumptionofthestableeconomicstructure.Howeverwiththedifferentinternationalenviro__entandhistoricalconditionstheregime’sshiftingfrompeggingtoUSdollar__yda__getheequilibrium.Thustwohistoricals__nariosaresetforprovidingenoughreferen__:1S__narioⅡ:Inthiss__nariotheRMBwouldstarttoappreciateagainstUSDinAugust2005experiencingthesameappreciationroutinefromSeptember2005toDe__mber2006astheJapaneseyenfromDe__mber1985toFebruary
1987.Howeverthestateofeconomicequilibriumkeepsstable.2S__narioⅢ:Thiss__narioexperien__sthesameappreciationtrackass__narioⅡbutthestateofeconomicequilibriumisassumedtochangewiththeabsolutevalueofelasticitycoefficientincreasedby10%.Alloftheses__nariosmightbeunlikelytohappeninthefuturebuttheycandescribethestressofRMB’sappreciationthatChina’stradeandeconomycouldendure.
3.ModelsandtheirevaluationTheRMB’sappreciationshouldundoubtedlygenerateextensiveandfar-reachingimplicationforChina’seconomyespeciallyforexports.Thisresearchshouldbebasedonestablishingandtestingeconometricmodels.Weestablishtheevaluatedmodelsforexportandtradingformsrespectively.Inthefollowingempiricalworkthesemodelsareusedinthes__nario____ysisofChina’strade.ThesampledataarecollectedovertheperiodfromJan.1995toJul.
2005.DataonexportandimportaretakenfromChina’sCustomsStatistics.TheexchangeratedataareobtainedfromtheUniversityofBritishColumbia’swebsitehttp://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/data.htmlhttp://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/data.html.
3.1Constructingthevaluationfunctionofexports
3.
1.1TotalexportsTheexportfunctionconstructedbyWangetal.2003fordiscussingtheeffectsofJapaneseyen’sdepreciationonChina’sexportsviathestresstesting____ysisisusedinourresearch.Itisreasonabletoassumethattheforeignincomethedomesticandforeignpri__levelkeepconstantina__alleconomy.SotheeffectsofexchangerateonChina’sexportswillbe____yzedinsuchassumed__croeconomicbackground.Thatis:1whererepresentstheChina’sexportsistheexchangerateofRMB.ItiswellknownthatJapaneseyenisthe__incurrencyinAsiaevenintheworld.ItschangewillaffectthebilateraltradebetweenChinaandJapanaswellasexportstoAsiaandAmerica.AndallofthesewillaffecttheChina’sexportsfinally.MoreovertheexchangerateofRMBtoUSdollarhasbeenkeptrelativelystablesin__1994whileJapaneseyenwascharacterizedbythefloatabilityandflexibility.Theseeviden__sshowthatitisappropriatetochooseJapaneseyenasthesubstitutevariableofexchangerate.BesidesthebilateraltradebetweenChinaandEuropebecomesincreasinglyimportant.China’sexportstoEUreachedUS$
107.16billionin2004accountingfor
18.1%ofChina’stotalexports.Itisobviousthateuroisthechoi__substitutevariable.Thereforetheexportequationcanberewrittenas2whererepresentsthemonthlydataseriesonChina’sexportsarethenominalexchangeratesofRMBtoJapaneseyenandeurorespectively.Thevariableofexportgrowthrateisdefinedaswhereisthenaturallogarithmof.BecausethegrowthrateofChina’sexportsisdefinedastherateoverthecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyeartheseasonaladjustmentintheseriesofChina’sexportsneednotbeconsidered.ThegrowthrateofRMB/YENexchangerateisdefinedas3whereisthenaturallogarithmoftheexchangerateofRMB/YENdataseriesandisdefinedsimilarly.TheresultsofunitroottestsonandaredisplayedinAppendixTableA.
1.Alloftheseseriesarestationary.Howeverthecoefficientoftheexchangeratevariableisinsignificantinthisstudywhichindicatesthattheimpactoftheeuroonthetotalexportscan’tbeseenevidently.Itrequiresfurtherstudyintermsofthe__inexport__rketssuchasAsiaEUandUSA.ItisfoundthathaslaggedimpactsonChina’sexportsandthelagisfrom5to10months.TheotherfindingistheautoregressivefeatureinChina’sexports.BasedonthesephenomenaanADLAuto-regressiveDistributedLagmodelisappliedandtheesti__tedregressionisasfollowsthevalueinparenthesesist-statisticforeachcoefficient:
42.
77786.
06074.
99822.
99852.9657Fromtheaboveresultswe__yalsofindthecoefficientsofvariablesaresignificantat1%level.Consequentlyourhypothesisof__alleconomyassumptionisreasonableinshort-run.
3.
1.2__inexport__rketsGenerallytheimpactsofRMB’sappreciationonChina’sexportstodifferent__rkets__ydifferobviouslyduetothevarioustradepatternscommoditystructuretradetermandsoon.Thesyste__ticmodelshouldbeutilizedtoesti__tefortheexportpersisten__andsubstitution.FurthermoretheVARmodelforChina’sexportsto__in__rketsisestablishedandonlytheexchangerateisconsideredastheexogenousvariableliketheaboveexportmodel.Sin__China’sexportstoAsiaEUandUSAaccountforalmost__%ofChina’stotalexportsonlythesethree__rketsareconsideredinourmodel.BecausetheexchangerateofRMBispeggedtoUSdollarwithafluctuationlessthan
0.04%beforeJuly22nd2005China’sexportstoUSAare__inlyinfluen__dbytheRMB’schangestoothercurrenciesratherthanUSD.ThereforetheexchangeratesofRMB/YENandRMB/EUROareusedinthemodel.TheVARmodelcanbedescribedas:5whereisthevectorofmonthlygrowthratesofChina’sexportstoAsiaEUandUSAthatis.isthemonthlygrowthrateofChina’sexportstoAsiameasuredintwelfthdifferen__ofthenaturallogarithmofChina’sexportstoAsiaandaredefinedsimilarly.isthevectorofmonthlychangerateofandthatis.andarethelagsforeachvariableinthemodel,andare__tri__sofparametersistheconstantvectorandisthevectoroferrorterms.ThedatasetusedinthismodelislimitedtotheperiodfromJan.1999toJul.
2005.WedidnotusedatabeforeJan.1999becausetherobustnessandstabilityofthismodelwasinfluen__dbyEasternAsianfinancialcrisisin
1997.ThemodelVAR2couldbeusedbecauseofits__allestAICandSCamongthemodelswithdifferentlaglengths.ItsresultsaredisplayedinAppendixTableA.
2.SeenfromittheadjustedR-squaredvalueforeachequationisaround
0.
70.Itrepresentsstrongexplanatorypower.
3.2ConstructingthevaluationfunctionoftradingformsIntheresearchoftheimpactsofRMB’sappreciationonimportweestablishedtheADLmodelwithdomesticde__ndandexchangerate.Industryaddedvaluewastreatedasthesubstitutevariabletorepresentthedomesticde__ndbecauseoftheabsen__ofmonthlyGDPdata.Sin__thecoefficientofexchangeratevariableisinsignificantweconcludethatfactorsaffectingChina’stotalimportarecomplicatedanditmightbettertodofurtherresearchintradingforms.Foreigntrade__inlyconsistsofpro__ssingtradeandgeneraltradeandtheeffectsofRMB’sappreciationonChina’sforeigntradevarywiththetradingforms.Thereforeitisne__ssarytoconstructthemodelswiththefourvariables:generaltradeexportgeneraltradeimportpro__ssingtradeexportandpro__ssingtradeimport.Asin
3.
1.1andareconsideredasthesubstitutevariablesofexchangerate.Weassumethatforeignincomereflectingforeign__rketde__ndandtradepolicykeepconstant.Fortheinteractionbetweenexportandimportthroughpro__ssingtradeitisreasonabletoapplyVARmodelthatcanbedescribedas:6whereisthevectorofmonthlygrowthratesofdifferenttradingformsthatiswheredenotethemonthlygrowthratemeasuredintwelfthdifferen__ofthenaturallogarithmofChina’spro__ssingtradeexportpro__ssingtradeimportgeneraltradeexportandgeneraltradeimportrespectively.Whileisdefinedas
3.
1.1andisthechangerateofindustryaddedvaluemeasuredasthefollowing:7andarethelagsforeachvariableinthemodel,andare__tri__sofparametersiscoefficientvectorisconstantvectorandisthevectoroferrorterms.Theesti__tionresultsovertheperiodfromJan.1995toJul.2005reportedinAppendixTableA.3indicatethattheadjustedR-squaredvaluesareabove
0.7whichsuggestinggoodexplanatorypower.
4.Forecastingresultsfroms__nario____ysisFinallywewouldrunthemodelsandcomparetheresultsindifferentdesigneds__narios.InourworkthegrowthrateofindustryaddedvaluefromAug.2005toDec.2006isdefinedastheprevious__eragegrowthbetweenJan.2000andJul.2005:8wheredenotestheesti__tedgrowthrateofthemonthandistherealgrowthrateofmonthinyear.MoreoverseenfromthefiguresfromJan.toJul.2005thegrowthratesofgeneraltradeexportgeneraltradeimportandpro__ssingtradeimportkeptdeclining.Thisindicatesthattheyh__ebeenmovedfromarapidgrowthperiodtoastabledevelopmentstage.Thereforeforthesethreeseriesthedrivingfor__ofthefirstautoregressivetermonthecurrentvaluemightbeweakened.Accordinglysomecorrespondingautoregressivecoefficientsincludinginofthefunction6shouldbeadjustedtobe__allerwhentheesti__tedmodelisusedtoforecast.Wedefinetheadjustmentparameterasthatvariesin[
0.701].Thenbasedonthemodelesti__tedovertheperiodfromJan.1995toDec.2004fromJan.toJul.2005areforecastedunderthedifferentadjustmentparameter.Theopti__ladjustmentparametercanbeselectedaccordingtotheTheilinequalitycoefficientthecriteriaoftheforecastingprecisionSeeFig.
2.图表
40.
04395889650.
04384321330.
04373564490.
04363686090.
04354757680.
04346855590.
04340061170.
04334460960.
04330146890.
04327216490.
04325772980.
04325925520.
04327789240.
0433148540.
04337141410.
04344890930.
04354873810.
04367236060.
04382129820.
04399713170.0442015001Sheet1Sheet2Sheet3Figure2:TheilinequalitycoefficientunderthedifferentadjustmentparameterRunningtheestablishedmodelunderthesethrees__nariostheesti__tedresultsareachievedandsum__rizedinAppendixTableA.4A.5andA.
6.
4.1Thehypotheticals__nario____ysisFigure3depictstheannuallygrowthrateunderthehypotheticals__nario.ItsuggeststhattheRMB’sappreciationby2%wouldnotbringsevereeffectsontheChina’sexportsin2005althoughtheincreasingtrendofChina’sexportswouldbecomeslower.Therapiddeclineingrowthrate__ybeseeninthefirsthalfof2006whichwillbeheadbackinthesecondhalfof2006ex__pttheexportstoAsiaSeeTableA.
5.Amongthree__inexport__rketsthedropingrowthrateforexportstoUSAisthe__allestone.Astotradingformscomparedwithexportsthroughpro__ssingtradeexportsthroughgeneraltradewouldbeconfrontedwithmorepressurefromtheappreciationandmorelagged;whileitisreverseforimports.Actuallyexportsthroughgeneraltradewouldsufferfromabigdecreasebyapproxi__tely21%inthefirsthalfyearof2006coupledwithexportsthroughpro__ssingtrade__yexperien__adecreaseby13%inthesecondhalfyearof2005SeeTableA.
6.Forimportsthroughgeneraltradeitsgrowthratewillbeupliftedsignificantlyfrom11%in2005to23%in
2006.Howevera2%reduction__yappearforimportsthroughpro__ssingtradein
2006.It__yberesultedfromsomefactorssuchastheimpactsofappreciationonexportsthroughpro__ssingtheexpectationoffutureappreciationandchangeofdomesticde__nd.Figure3:TheresultsofS__narioⅠ
4.2Thehistoricals__nario____ysisAfteranexaminationonTableA.4A.5A.6we__yfindthatthereislittledifferen__betweenS__narioⅡandS__narioⅢ.Thereforetheimplicationsofappreciationunderthechangeofeconomicequilibriumstructureshouldbeseeninthelongterm.HerewefocusonlyontheS__narioⅡSeeFig.
4.Inthiss__nariothetotalexportswillshowabigslowdownin
2006.Especiallyinthesecondhalfof2006itsexports__yonlyprodu__aslowgrowthoflessthan4%.Inregardtothethree__inexport__rketstheadverselysevereeffectontheexportswouldemergein2006underthehistoricals__nariocomparedwiththatofhypotheticals__nario.EspeciallyforexportstoEUitwillregistera__allriseofapproxi__tely1%in2006SeeTableA.
5.Comparedwithexportsthroughpro__ssingtradewhichstillincreasingattherateofmorethan10%exportsthroughgeneraltradewouldmostlystopincreasingin
2006.Besidesexportsthroughpro__ssingtradewouldembarkonalittlemomentumofgrowth.Forimportstherewouldrevealthelowergrowththantheresultsinthehypotheticals__nariosin__theeconomicdevelopmentanddomesticde__ndwoulddefinitelybeaffectedbythesharpappreciation.Figure4:TheresultsofS__narioⅡ
5.ConclusionsandprospectsInthispaperthes__nario____ysisisusedto____yzetheeffectsofRMB’sappreciationonChina’stradein2005and
2006.Oureviden__showsthatChina’sexportswouldcontinuetokeepastrongincreasingtrendinthehypotheticals__nariobeingaone-offappreciationof2%.SeenfromthecurrentsituationaboutRMBthesimilarf__orableresults__ybeexpectedtooccurifRMBexchangerateregimewould__rkasoundoperation.ThereforeweconcludethatChina’sexportswouldnotbeaffectedmuchbythecurrentappreciationofRMBandwouldkeepanincreasingtrendin
2005.OntheotherhanddespitetherapiddevelopmentofChina’sexportswhichnotonlybenefitfromChina’sstrongeconomicdevelopmentbutalsofromthestronginternationalcompetitivenessofexportgoodstherestillexisttheriskduetotheobvioussustaineddropofgrowthin2006which__yimpedetherapidgrowthofexports.Domesticde__ndshouldalsobepromotedtocounteracttheriskfromthefluctuationofinternational__rket.EvenifRMB__yappreciatetoanearlyimpossiblelevelinhistoricals__nariosChina’sexportsin2005wouldstillkeepgrowing.What’smoretheassumptiveseventeen-month’ssevereappreciationofRMBwouldunlikelyhappen.TheincreasingtrendofChina’sexportsisverystrongandexportswillh__eagoodfuturein
2005.Neverthelessthegrowthratesin2006aresolowthatthevastandsevereinfluen__soneconomicdevelopmentmightappearinthelongrun.Consequentlyitisne__ssaryandurgenttopressforwardonthereformofRMBexchangerateregimeanddeveloptherelatedsupportingpolicies.Thefollow-upstudyshouldalsobedealtwithtomonitorthesituationoftradedevelopmentcloselyandtimely.AppendixTableA.1:ADFtestsonandSeriesADFstatistic-
2.7443***-
10.0653*-
2.6348****Significantat10%;***Significantat1%.TableA.2:ResultsofVARmodelforVariables
0.
11250.6725-
0.3475-
1.
85580.
18041.2048-
0.0___-
0.2770-
0.2357-
1.
20190.
09780.
62350.
39173.___
30.
67654.
80620.
08380.7447-
0.2686-
2.
08180.0___
0.4059-
0.1969-
1.7050-
0.3465-
2.
09100.
07510.
40490.
05390.
36330.
59933.
39860.
37001.
87530.
53683.
40190.
10684.
99010.0__
03.
71710.
05712.
98270.
92692.
32401.
41063.
16070.
76752.
15061.
61623.
92201.63__
3.
55421.
84565.
00531.
12872.
68830.
40280.8573-
0.2___-
0.
61590.
98372.
39270.
66351.
44230.
94942.
58070.
44841.
14151.
35403.0802-
0.0959-
0.
27300.
54201.
48880.
42721.
04881.
11903.4350-
1.5430-
3.9144-
0.8352-
1.__36-
1.1484-
3.
25580.
76141.
96050.
79561.
83071.
06293.0585AdjustedR-squared
0.
73630.
83190.8045F-statistic
10.
767419.
093715.8726AkaikeAIC-
2.4223-
2.1974-
2.6446SchwarzSC-
1.9366-
1.7117-
2.15__AkaikeInfor__tionCriterion-
8.1225Schwarzcriterion-
6.6655Thevalueinparenthesesist-statisticforeachesti__tedcoefficient.TableA.3:ResultsofVARmodelforVariables
0.
06920.4840-
0.2256-
1.5958-
0.5137-
2.5761-
0.1751-
0.
60910.
04310.3072-
0.20__-
1.
50350.
05670.2__4-
0.295-
1.
04800.
25031.
94990.
68025.
35540.
56213.1382-
0.2381-
0.
92210.
07880.
63170.
22021.7839-
0.3727-
2.
14130.
15720.6265-
0.0627-
0.
94740.
02980.
45500.
50555.
47350.
12240.
91920.
02760.4303-
0.0270-
0.
42650.
20122.2495-
0.0879-
0.6816-
0.0__8-
1.7440-
0.1109-
2.1764-
0.3658-
5.0__
10.
44974.3412-
0.0206-
0.
40110.
00920.
18160.
17032.
37520.
29082.
81370.
07855.
25940.
05243.
55050.
07613.
65460.
06312.
10290.
83807.
53471.
299211.
80490.
43062.
77410.
92124.1176-
0.4276-
3.2500-
0.8632-
6.
63040.
06570.3578-
0.3648-
1.3783-
0.1253-
0.4249-
0.2215-
0.7591-
0.1496-
0.3636-
1.3902-
2.3433-
0.2793-
0.9481-
0.5246-
1.7998-
0.8019-
1.9507-
0.5955-
1.
00510.
54712.
05900.
60292.
29280.
77102.
07901.
65223.
09100.
74492.
97510.
64532.
60441.
15373.
30190.
85141.
69060.
26911.
01560.
54092.
06251.
23573.
34130.
97011.
81990.
86993.
62210.
60362.
53951.
35134.
03160.
28800.5962Adj.R-squared
0.
70050.
81540.
79760.6999F-statistic
17.
519632.
196528.
837417.4738AkaikeAIC-
2.5552-
2.5762-
1.8886-
1.1574SchwarzSC-
2.1472-
2.1681-
1.4806-
0.7494AkaikeInfor__tionCriteria-
8.4446SchwarzCriteria-
6.8125Thevalueinparenthesesist-statisticforeachesti__tedcoefficient.TableA.4:China’stotalexportsunderthes__nariosYearS__nario(Unit:
0.1billionUSD)S__narioⅠS__narioⅡS__narioⅢExportsGrowthratea%Changesingrowthrateb%ExportsGrowthratea%Changesingrowthratea%ExportsGrowthratea%Changesingrowthratea%Jan.-Jun.
2005342432.66%-
3.04%
342432.66%-
3.04%
342432.66%-
3.04%Jul.-Dec.
2005420325.36%-
9.81%
420325.36%-
9.81%
420225.33%-
9.84%Jan.-Jun.
2006402417.54%-
15.12%
380511.15%-
21.51%
377210.18%-
22.49%Jul.-Dec.
2006491917.03%-
8.33%
43703.97%-
21.39%
43082.52%-
22.82%
2005762728.48%-
6.91%
762728.48%-
6.91%
762628.46%-
6.92%2006__
4317.26%-
11.22%
81757.19%-
21.28%
80805.95%-
22.51%aGrowthrateoverthecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyear;bChangesingrowthratecomparedwiththecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyear;TheexportsfromJan.toJul.2005arerealvalue.TableA.5:China’sexportsto__inexport__rketsunderthes__nariosYearS__nario(Unit:
0.1billionUSD)S__narioⅠS__narioⅡS__narioⅢExportsGrowthrate%Changesingrowthrate%ExportsGrowthrate%Changesingrowthrate%ExportsGrowthrate%Changesingrowthrate%China’sexportstoAsiaJan.-Jun.
2005165927.93%-
5.21%
165927.93%-
5.21%
165927.93%-
5.21%Jul.-Dec.
2005209124.42%-
9.65%
206022.63%-
11.45%
205822.48%-
11.60%Jan.-Jun.
2006194417.21%-
10.73%
17525.61%-
22.32%
17264.05%-
23.88%Jul.-Dec.
2006253321.17%-
3.25%
21956.54%-
16.08%
21625.06%-
17.41%
2005374925.95%-
7.72%
371924.94%-
8.73%
371724.85%-
8.81%
2006447819.42%-
6.53%
39476.13%-
18.81%
38884.61%-
20.24%China’sexportstoEUJan.-Jun.
200565847.30%
3.38%
65847.30%
3.38%
65847.30%
3.38%Jul.-Dec.
200581033.65%-
14.04%
79130.52%-
17.17%
79030.31%-
17.38%Jan.-Jun.
200678519.31%-
27.99%
6752.53%-
44.77%
6600.27%-
47.03%Jul.-Dec.
2006100624.26%-
9.39%
7910.07%-
30.45%771-
2.34%-
32.65%
2005146839.44%-
6.62%
144937.64%-
8.42%
144837.52%-
8.54%
2006179222.04%-
17.40%
14661.19%-
36.46%1431-
1.15%-
38.68%China’sexportstoUSAJan.-Jun.
200572734.25%-
1.34%
72734.25%-
1.34%
72734.25%-
1.34%Jul.-Dec.2005__
124.74%-
11.06%
87923.18%-
12.62%
87822.97%-
12.83%Jan.-Jun.
200685317.37%-
16.88%
7523.50%-
30.75%
7391.69%-
32.55%Jul.-Dec.
2006108421.71%-
3.04%
9194.53%-
18.65%
9032.81%-
20.16%
2005161828.84%-
6.87%
160627.95%-
7.75%
160527.83%-
7.87%
2006193719.76%-
9.08%
16724.06%-
23.__%
16422.30%-
25.53%TableA.6:Tradingformsunderthes__nariosYearS__nario(Unit:
0.1billionUSD)S__narioⅠS__narioⅡS__narioⅢExportsGrowthrate%Changesingrowthrate%ExportsGrowthrate%Changesingrowthrate%ExportsGrowthrate%Changesingrowthrate%ExportsthroughgeneraltradeJan.-Jun.
2005146236.86%
5.39%
146236.86%
5.39%
146236.86%
5.39%Jul.-Dec.
2005167522.41%-
13.26%
164420.12%-
15.55%
163919.80%-
15.87%Jan.-Jun.
2006169716.03%-
20.83%
14911.94%-
34.93%
14660.22%-
36.64%Jul.-Dec.
2006198318.38%-
4.03%
16560.78%-
19.34%1624-
0.92%-
20.72%
2005313728.75%-
5.05%
310627.46%-
6.33%
310227.28%-
6.51%
2006368017.29%-
11.46%___
71.33%-
26.14%3090-
0.38%-
27.66%Exportsthroughpro__ssingtradeJan.-Jun.
2005183628.92%-
8.92%
183628.92%-
8.92%
183628.92%-
8.92%Jul.-Dec.
2005225621.43%-
12.73%
222919.99%-
14.17%
222519.77%-
14.39%Jan.-Jun.
2006220620.13%-
8.79%
207012.72%-
16.20%
205411.83%-
17.08%Jul.-Dec.
2006274321.58%
0.15%
255714.72%-
5.27%
253814.05%-
5.72%
2005409324.68%-
11.05%
406623.86%-
11.86%
406223.74%-
11.99%
2006494920.93%-
3.75%
462813.81%-
10.05%
459213.05%-
10.69%ImportsthroughgeneraltradeJan.-Jun.
200513227.__%-
32.65%
13227.__%-
32.65%
13227.__%-
32.65%Jul.-Dec.
2005142313.67%-
10.62%
141613.11%-
11.18%
141312.92%-
11.37%Jan.-Jun.
2006159420.62%
12.73%14__
12.67%
4.78%
147611.68%
3.79%Jul.-Dec.
2006177224.56%
10.__%
166417.55%
4.43%
165216.90%
3.98%
2005274410.81%-
21.02%
273710.53%-
21.30%
273510.43%-
21.40%
2006336622.66%
11.85%
315315.19%
4.66%
312814.38%-
3.94%Importsthroughpro__ssingtradeJan.-Jun.
2005122222.31%-
19.43%
122222.31%-
19.43%
122222.31%-
19.43%Jul.-Dec.
2005136812.22%-
19.52%
135210.97%-
20.77%
135010.77%-
20.97%Jan.-Jun.
2006139714.33%-
7.98%
13258.37%-
13.94%
13167.69%-
14.62%Jul.-Dec.
2006157415.09%
2.87%
149610.62%-
0.35%
148810.20%-
0.57%
2005259016.77%-
19.30%
257516.08%-
19.98%
257215.97%-
20.09%
2006297114.73%-
2.03%
28219.55%-
6.53%
28049.01%-
6.96%Referen__:
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