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了解中国的崛起演讲稿,,theworldischangingwithreallyremarkablespeed.ifyoulookatthechartatthetophereyoullseethatin2025,thesegoldmansachsprojectionssuggestthatthechineseeconomywillbealmostthes,amesizeastheamericaneconomy.andifyoulookatthechartfor2050itsprojectedthatthechineseeconomywillbetwicethesizeoftheamericaneconomyandtheindianeconomywillbealmostthesamesizeastheamericaneconomy.andweshoul,dbearinmindherethattheseprojectionsweredrawnupbeforethewesternfinancialcrisis.acoupleofweeksagoiwaslookingatthelatestprojectionbybnpparibasforwhenchinawillhavealargereconomythantheunitedstates.goldm,ansachsprojected
2027.thepost-crisisprojectionis
2020.thatsjustadecadeaway.chinaisgoingtoch,angetheworldintwofundamentalrespects.firstofallitsahugedevelopingcountrywithapopulationof
1.3billionpeople,whichhasbeengrowingforover30yearsataround10percentayear.andwithinadecade,itwillhavethelargesteconomyintheworld,.neverbeforeinthemodernerahast,helargesteconomyintheworldbeenthatofadevelopingcountryratherthanadevelopedcountry.secon,dly forthefirsttimeinthemodernerathedominantcountryintheworld--whichithinkiswhatchinawillbecome--,,willbenotfromthewestandfromvery verydifferentcivilizationalroots.nowiknowitsaw,idespreadassumptioninthewestthat ascountriesmodernizetheyalsowesternize.thisisanillusion.itsanassumptionthatmodernityisaproductsimplyofcompeti,tionmarketsandtechnology.itisnot;itisalsoshapedequallybyhistoryandculture.chinaisnotlikethewest,anditwillnotbecomelikethewest.itwillremaininveryfundamentalrespectsverydifferent.nowthebigquestionhereisobviously howdowemakesenseofchinahowdowetrytounderstandwhatchinais,andtheproblemwehaveinthewestatthemomentby-and-largeisthattheconventionalapproachisthatweunderstanditreallyinwesterntermsusingwesternideas.wecant.nowiwanttoofferyouthreebuildingblocksfortryingtounde,,rstandwhatchinaislike--justasabeginning.thefirstisthis thatchinaisnotreallyanationstate.okayitscalleditselfanationstateforthelasthundredyears.buteveryonewhoknowsanythingaboutchinaknowsitsalotolderthanthis.thiswaswhatchinalookedlikewiththevictoryoftheqindynastyin22,1b.c.attheendofth,ewarrin,gstateperiod--thebirthofmodernchina.andyoucanseeitagainsttheboundariesofmodernchina.orimmediatelyafterward thehandynastystill2,000yearsago.andyoucanseealreadyitoccupiesmostofwhatwenowknowaseasternchin,,a whichiswherethevastmajorityofchineselivedthenandlivenow.,nowwhatisextraordinaryaboutthisis whatgiveschinaitssenseofbeingchina,,whatgivesthechinesethesenseofwhatitistobechinese,,,comesnotfromthelasthundredyears notfromthenationstateperiod,,whichiswhathappenedinthewest butfromtheperiodifyoulike,,,ofthecivilizationstate.imthinkinghere forexample,,ofcustomslikeancestralworship ofaverydistinctivenotionofthestatelikewiseaverydistinctiveno,tionofth,efamily socialrelationshipslikeguanxi,confucianvaluesandsoon.thesear,eallthingsthatcomefromtheperiod,ofthecivilizationstate.inotherwords chinaunlikethewesternstatesandmostcountriesintheworld,isshapedbyitssenseofcivilization itsexistenceasacivilizationstate,,,ratherthanasanationstate.andtheresoneotherthingtoaddtothis andthatisthisofcourseweknowchinasbighuge dem,ographicallyandgeographicallywithapopulationof
1.3billionpeople.whatweoftenarentreallyawareofisthefactthatchin,aisextremelydiverseandverypluralisticandinmanywaysverydecentralized.youcantrunaplaceonthisscalesimplyfrombeijing,,eventhoughwethinkthistobethecase.itsneverbeenthecase.sothisischina acivilizationstateratherthananations,tate.andwhatdoesitmeanwellithinkithasallsortsofprofoundimplications.il,lgiv,eyoutwoquicko,nes.thefir stisthatthemostimportantpoliticalvalueforthechineseisunity,,isthemaintenanceofchinesecivilization.youknow2000yearsago europe,,breakdown thefragmentationoftheholyromanempire[romanempire].itdivided,,anditsremaineddividedeversince.china overthesametimeperiodwentinexactlytheoppositedirectionverypainfullyholdingthishugecivilization,civilizationstatetogether.thesecondismaybemoreprosaic,whichishongkong.doyourememberthehandoverofhongkongbybritaintochinain1997youmayrememberwhatthechinesecons,titutionalpropositionwas.onecoun,trytwosystems.andilllayawagerthatbarelyanyoneinthewestbelievedthem.windowdressing.whenchinagetsitshandsonhongkong thatwontbet,hecase.13yearson,thepoliticalandlegalsysteminhongkongisasdif,ferentnowasitwasin
1997.wew,erewrong.whywerewewrong wewerewrongbecausewethoughtnaturallyenough,innationstateways.thinkofgermanunification
1990.whathappened well,basicallytheeastwasswallowedbythewest.onenation,,onesystem.thatisthenationstatementality.butyoucantrunacountrylikechinaacivilizationstate onthebasisofonecivilization,onesystem.itdoesntwork.soactuallytheresponseofchinatothequestionofhongkong--asitwillbetothequestionoftaiwan--wasanaturalresponse onecivilizationmanysystems.,letmeofferyouanotherbuildingblocktotryandunderstandchina--,maybenotsuchacomfortableone.thechinesehaveavery,,verydifferentconceptionofracetomostothercountries.doyouknowofth,e
1.3billionchines,e over90pe,rcentofthemthinktheybelongtothesameracethehan.nowthisiscompletelydifferentfromtheotherworldsmostpopulouscountries.india theunitedstatesind,onesia brazil--,,,,allofthemaremultiracial.thechinesedontfeelli,kethat.chin,aisonlymultiracialreal,lyatthemargins.sothequestionis whywellthereason ithinkessentiallyis again,,,,backtothecivilizationstate.ahistoryofatleast2000years ahistoryofconquest,,occupation absorptionassimilationandsoon ledtotheprocessbywhichovertimethisnotionofthehanemerged--ofcourse,,nurturedbyagrowingandverypowerfulsenseofculturalidentity.nowthegreatadvantageofthishistoricalexperiencehasbeenthat withoutthehanchinacouldneverhaveheldtogether.thehanidentityhasbeenth,ecementwhichhasheldthiscountrytogether.thegreatdisadvantageofitisthatthehanhave,averyweakcon,ceptionofculturaldifference.theyreallybelieveintheirownsuperiorityandtheyaredisrespectfulofthosewhoarenot.hencetheirattitude forexample,totheuyghursandtothetibetans.orletmegiveyoumythirdbuildingblockthechinesestate.nowtherelationshipbetweenthestateandsocietyinchinaisverydifferentfromthatinthewest.nowweinthewestoverwhelminglyseemtothink--inthesedaysatleast--thattheauthorityandlegitimacyofthestateisafunctionofdemocracy.theproblemw,iththispropositionisthatth,echinesestateenjoysmorelegitimacyandmoreauthorityam,ongstthechinesethanistruewithanywesternstate.andthereasonforthisisbecause--wellt,hereare,tworeasons ithink.anditsobviouslygotnothingtodowithdemocracybecauseinourtermsthechinesecertainlydonthaveade,mocracy.andthereasonforthisisfirstly becausethestateinchinaisgivenaveryspecial--,itenjoysaveryspecialsignificanceastherepresentativetheembodimentandtheguardianofchinesecivilization,,ofthecivilizationstate.thisisascloseaschinagetstoakindofspiritualrole.,andthesecondreasonisbecause whereasineuropeandnorthamerica,,thestatespoweriscontinuouslychallenged--imeanintheeuropeantradition,,historicallyagainstthechurch againstothersectorsofthearistocracyagainstmerchantsandsoon--for1000yearsthepowerofthechinesestatehasno,tbeenchallen,ged.itshadnoseriousrivals.soyoucanseethatthewayinwhichpowerhasbeenconstructedinchinaisverydifferentfromourexperienc,einwesternh,istory.theresult bythewayisthatthechinesehaveaverydifferentviewofthestate.whereaswetendtoview,itasanintruder astrangercertainlyanorganwhosepowersneedtobelimitedordefinedandconstrained,thechinesedontseethestatelikethata,tall.thechineseviewthestate,asanintimate--notjustasanintimateactually asamemberofthefamily--,notjustinfactasamemberofthefamily butastheheadofthefamilythepatriarchofthefamily.thisisthechineseviewofthestate--veryverydifferenttoours.itsembeddedinsocietyinadifferentkindofwaytowhatisthecaseint,hewest.,,andiwouldsuggesttoyouthatactuallywhatwearedealingwithhereinthechinesecontext isanewkind,ofparadigm,whichisdifferentfromanythingwevehadt,othinkaboutinthepast.knowthatchinabelievesinthemarketandthestate.imean adamsmithalreadywriti,nginthelate18thcenturysaid,thechinesemarketislargerandmoredevelopedandmoresophisticatedthananythingineurope.and apartfromthemaoperi,od thathasrema,inedmore-or-lessthecaseeversince.butthisiscombinedwithane,xtremelystrongandubiq,uitousstate.thestateiseverywhereinchina.imean itsleadingfirms,manyofthemarestillpubliclyowned.privatefirms howeverlargetheyarelikelenovo,,dependinmanywaysonstatepatronage.targetsfortheeconomyandsoonaresetbythestate.andthestate ofcourseitsauthorityflowsintolotsofotherareas--,,,aswearefamiliarwith--withsomethinglikethetheone-childpolicy.,,moreover thisisaveryoldstatetraditionaveryoldtraditionofstatecraft.imean,ifyouwantanillustrationofthis thegreatwallisone.butthisisanotherthisisthegrandcanal,,whichwasconstructedinthefirstinstanceinthefifthcenturyb.c.andwasfinallycompletedintheseventhcenturya.d.itwen,tfor1114miles,linkingbeijingwithhangzhouandshanghai.sotheresalonghistoryofextraordinarystateinfrastructuralprojectsinchina whichisupposehelpsustoexplainwhatweseetodaywhichissomethinglikethethreegorgesd,amandmanyotherexpressionsofstatecompetencewithinchina.sotherewehavethreebuildingblocksfortryingtotounderstandthedifferencethatischina--thecivilizationstate,,thenotionofraceandthenatureofthestateanditsrelationshiptosociety.,andyetwestillinsist by-and-large,inthinkingthatwecanunderstandchinabysimplydrawingonwesternexperiencelookingatitthroughwesterneyesusingwesternconcepts.ifyouwanttok,nowwhyweunerringlyseemtogetchinawrong--ourpredictionsaboutwhatsgoingtohappentochinaareincorrect--thisisthereason.unfortunatelyithink,ihavetosaythatithinkattitudetowardschinaisthatofakind,oflittlewesternermentality.itskindofarrogant.itsarrogantinthesensethatwethinkthatwearebest,andthereforewehavetheuniversalmeasure.andsecondlyitsignorant.werefusetoreallyaddresstheissueofdifference.youknow,theresaveryinterestingpassageinabookbypaulcohen,,theamericanhistoria,n.andpaulcohenarguesthatthewestthinksofitselfasprobablythemostcosmopolitanofallcultures.butitsnot.inmanyways itsthemostparochialbecau,sefor200years,,,thewesthasbeensod,ominantintheworldthatitsnotreallyneededtounderstandothercultures othercivilizations.because attheendofthedayitcould,,ifnecessarybyforce getitsownway.whereasthosecultures--,,virtuallytherestoftheworld infact--whichhavebeeninafarweakerposition vis-a-,,,visthewest havebeentherebyforcedtounderstandthewestbecauseofthewestspresenceinthosesocieties.andtherefore theyareasaresult,,,,morecosmopolitaninmanywaysthanthewest.,imean takethequestionofeastasia.eastasia japankorea chinaetc.--,,athirdoftheworldspopulationlivesthere,nowthelargesteconomicregionintheworld.andilltellyounow thateastasianerspeoplefromea,stasia,arefarmoreknowledgeableaboutthewestthanthewestisabouteastasia.nowthispo,intisverygermane imafraidtothepresent.becausewhatshappening,,backtothatchartatthebeginning--thegoldmansachschart.whatishappeningisthat,veryrapidlyinhistoricalterms theworldisbeingdrivenandshapednotbytheolddevelopedcountries,butbythedevelopingworld.weveseenthisintermso,ftheg20--usurpingveryrapidlythepositionoftheg7ortheg
8.andtherearetwoconse,quencesofthis.firstthewestisrapidlylosingitsinfluenceintheworld.therewasadramaticillustrationofthisactuallyayearago--copenhagenclimatechangeconference.europewasnotatthefinalnegotiatingtable.whendidthatlasthappeniwouldwageritwasprobablyabout200yearsago.andthatiswhatisgoingtohappeninthef,,uture.,andthesecondimplicationisthattheworldwillinevitably asaconsequencebecome,increasinglyunfamiliartous,,becauseitllbeshapedbyculturesandexperiencesandhi,storiesthatwe,arenotreallyfa,miliarwith orconversantwith.andatlast imafraid--takeeuropeamericaisslightlydifferent--bu,teuropeansb,yandlarge ihavetosayareignorantareunawareaboutthewaytheworldischanging.s,omepeople--,ivegotanenglishfriendinchina andhesaidthecontinentissleepwalkingintooblivion.well maybethatstruemaybethatsanexaggeration.buttheresanotherp,roblemwhichg,oesalongw,iththis--thateuropeisincreasinglyoutoftouchwiththeworld--andthatisasortoflossofasenseofthefuture.imean europeonceofcourse,,oncecommandedthefutureinitsconfidence.takethe19thcenturyforexample.butthis,,alas isnolongertrue.ifyouwanttofeelthefuture ifyouwanttotastethefuturetrychina--theresoldconfucius.thisisarailwaystationthelikeofwhichyouveneverseenbefore.itdoesntevenlooklikearailwaystation.thisisthenewguangzhourailwa ystationforthehigh-speedtrains.chin,aalreadyhasabiggernetworkthananyothercountryintheworldandwillsoonhavemorethanalltherestoftheworldputtogether.ortakethis,nowthisisanidea,,butitsanideatobytriedoutshortlyinasuburbofbeijing.hereyouhaveamegabusontheupperdeckcarriesabout2,000people.ittravelsonrailsdownasuburba,nroadandthecarstravelunderneathit.anditdoesspeedsofuptoabout100milesanhour.nowthisisthewaythingsaregoingtomove becausechinahasaveryspecificproblemw,hichisd,ifferentfromeuropeanddifferentfromtheunitedstates.chinahashugenumbersofpeopleandnospace.sothisisasolutiontoasituationwherechinasgoingtohavemany,,many manycitiesover20millionpeople.okay sohowwouldiliketofinishwellwhatshouldourattitudebetowardsthisworldthatweseeveryrapidlydevelopingbeforeu,s,,ithinktherewillbegoodthingsaboutitandtherewillbebadthingsaboutit.butiwanttoargue aboveallabigpicturepositiveforthisworld.for200yearstheworldwasessentiallygovernedbyafragmentofthehumanpopulation.thatswhateuropeandnorthamericarepresented.thearriv,alofcountrieslikechinaandindia--betweenthem38percentoftheworldspopulation--andotherslikei,ndonesiaandbrazilandso,on,representthemostimport,antsingleactofdemocratizatio,ninthelast200years.civilizationsandcultures whichhadbeenignoredwhichhadnovoice,whichwerenotlistenedto whichwerenotknownabout,,willhaveadifferentsortofrepresentationinthisworld.ashumanistswemustwelcome surelythistransformation.andwewillhavetolearnaboutthesecivilizations.,thisbigshipherewastheonesailedinbyzhengheintheearly15thcenturyonhisgreatvoyagesaroundth,esouthchinase,a()the,eastchinaseaandacrosstheindianoceantoeastafrica.thelittleboatinfrontofitwastheoneinwhich80yearslater christophercolumbuscrossedtheatlantic.laughtero,rlookcarefullyatthissilkscrollmadebyzhuzhouin
1368.ithinktheyreplayinggolf.christthechineseeveninventedgolf.welcometothefuture.thankyou.。